Top analyst rejects talk of a 10% cut in iPhone 14 orders

Last week, reliable analyst Ming Chi-Kuo tweeted that demand for the iPhone 14 is expected to soar in China. Kuo based this forecast on his survey which showed that Chinese distributors/retailers/scalpers are paying the highest prepaid deposits ever to guarantee a sufficient supply of iPhone 14 units. Not only is this deposit “significantly higher” than the amount paid for the iPhone 13, it is twice as much in some areas.
But just two days following Kuo’s tweet, Digitimes wrote, “It is understood that the mass production of Apple’s iPhone 14 series has started, but the target shipment of the first wave of 90 million units has been reduced by 10%.” In other words, Digitimes’ report says that Apple had cut initial orders for the iPhone 14 series by 10%. Not exactly what you would expect to hear in light of Kuo’s tweet calling for higher iPhone 14 prepaid deposits in China.
The 10% cut in iPhone 14 orders is traced to a rumor claiming that leading chip foundry TSMC recently received cuts in orders from Apple (its top customer), AMD, and NVIDIA. Kuo responded with a tweet Saturday morning stating that the rumored cut in orders placed by Apple with TSMC does not “align” with his survey. According to the TF International analyst, he still sees the supply chain delivering enough components for Apple to ship 100 million iPhone 14 units.

Kuo also notes that if a supply chain issue causes a change to the shipment plans of new iPhone units before mass production, Apple usually postpones the orders rather than cutting them.

So that is where things stand. If you had to bet on who is right here, you would probably bet on Kuo’s track record and reputation.

In a bit over two months, we expect to see Apple introduce four new iPhone models: the 6.1-inch iPhone 14, 6.7-inch iPhone 14 Max, 6.1-inch iPhone 14 Pro, and the 6.7-inch iPhone 14 Pro Max.


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